A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
