Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
